2024 Election Forecast: Dog’s Unique Prediction Points to Trump as Winner
According to News Week, In a whimsical take on election forecasting, a dog named Joy has stepped into the spotlight as the latest oracle for the 2024 U.S. presidential election. As Vice President Kamala Harris of the Democratic Party faces off against former President Donald Trump, who is her Republican challenger, Joy’s prediction adds an entertaining twist to the political race.
Joy’s Predictive Test
With the election just days away, Newsweek has the exclusive scoop on Joy’s pick between the two leading candidates. In a test designed by John Antonakis, a Professor of Organizational Behavior at the University of Lausanne in Switzerland, Joy was presented with images of both candidates along with two identical treats.
Joy’s choice was clear—she opted for the treat associated with Trump. Antonakis humorously recounted, “I said to my dog in French, ‘Mange’—eat! And she went for the Trump treat first.”
A Lighthearted Perspective on Predictions
Antonakis acknowledged that using animals for election predictions might sound “silly,” yet he embraced the fun in employing his dog as a predictor. He remarked, “If you ask 500 pundits to guess the result of the U.S. election correctly, about one will get it right, just by chance alone. So we should be wary of such punditry.”
His comments led to a broader discussion about prediction accuracy in political analysis. Antonakis pointed out the importance of estimating the Electoral College outcome over mere predictions, citing that a model with a low estimation error—ideally around five percentage points—would be noteworthy.
The Antonakis-Jacquart Election Model
Together with his colleague, Professor Philippe Jacquart from Emlyon Business School in France, Antonakis has refined and updated Professor Ray Fair’s econometric election model from Yale University. The revised model includes charisma as a factor, enhancing the prediction of electoral outcomes.
Historically, their updated model has accurately predicted 25 out of the last 27 elections, yielding a success rate of 92.59%. The model focuses on three crucial elements that influence electoral results:
- State of the Economy
- Incumbency
- Charisma
Their analysis of the candidates’ acceptance speeches at party conventions suggests that Harris has less charisma compared to Trump. Additionally, incumbency typically offers an advantage to sitting presidents. However, with President Joe Biden out of the race, the model shifts its focus more toward the economy and charisma, indicating a slight edge for Trump.
Other Animal Predictions in U.S. Elections
While Joy has chosen Trump, she’s not the only animal making predictions for the upcoming election. A squirrel named Gnocchi Jr. was given two bowls labeled for Harris and Trump, with his choice determined by which bowl he consumed more nuts from. After over 30 minutes, Gnocchi declared Harris the winner.
In another prediction, Geda, a Chinese monkey living at the Shiyanhu Ecological Tourism Park, successfully forecast Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election against Hillary Clinton.
During the 2020 U.S. presidential election, a Siberian zoo hosted a unique prediction event featuring a brown bear and two tigers. They were presented with watermelons adorned with images of Trump and Biden. Khan, a white Bengal tiger, was seen playfully rolling around with the watermelon featuring Biden’s image while leaving Trump’s watermelon untouched. Another tiger, Barken, briefly paused before choosing to smash the Biden watermelon, and the brown bear, Buyan, also picked Biden’s watermelon.
Conclusion
As the 2024 election approaches, Joy’s lighthearted prediction and the playful antics of other animals offer a refreshing break from traditional political analysis. Whether or not these furry oracles hold any weight in the election outcome remains to be seen, but they certainly add an entertaining element to the election season!
