The Fight for the Senate

The battle for control of the United States Senate assumed fresh urgency Friday following the death of Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.

The vacancy offers President Donald Trump the opportunity to reshape the court and install a third conservative justice during his first term in office.

The election between Vice President Joe Biden and President Trump is being held on November 3.

Republicans currently hold an eight-seat majority in the Senate.

Democrats won the house in 2018, picking up a net gain of 40 seats. For Republicans, the path back to the majority would start with the 30 districts held by Democrats that President Trump carried when he was walking into the presidency.

Inside Elections currently rates 205 seats as safe for Democrats, which would bring the party 13 seats away from keeping control of the chamber. There are 164 seats that are “Safe Republican,” leaving 65 seats in play, 37 held by Republicans and 28 by Democrats. 10 seats are rated “Toss-up,” the most competitive designation, with seven held by Republicans and three by Democrats.

While Democrats are seen as having an edge in four Republican-held districts and two redistricted seats in North Carolina, the GOP is not favored in any Democratic-held districts at this point. Republicans are also defending five seats that are rated “Tilt Republican” or “Lean Republican,” including the unexpectedly competitive race between Senator Lindsey Graham and Jaime Harrison in South Carolina, which Inside Elections moved in the Democrats’ favor last week.

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